NEWS PAPER ANALYSIS( THE HINDU AND ECONOMICS TIMES ) 19TH AUGUST TO 20 TH AUGUST

• NEWSPAPER ANALYSIS 2
  19^TH  AUGUST TO 20^TH  AUGUST ( THE HINDU AND ECONOMIC TIMES )
• EDITORIAL PAGES ( THE HINDU ) 19 TH AUGUST 2019
• UNCLEAR DOCTRINE:-

1. DOCTRINE OF NUCLEAR WAS ADOPTED SINCE 4 JANUARY,2003 ,
2. NUCLEAR WEAPON WERE BASED ON STAGGERING AND PUNITIVE RETALIATION IN CASE OF DETERRENCE FAILED
3. THE RETALIATION TO A NUCLEAR STRIKE,WHETHER BY TACTICAL OR THEATER WEAPON OR SOMETHING WOULD BE BIGGER
4. ON THE DEATH OF FORMER PRIME MINISTER ATAL BIHARI VAJPAYEE IN THE NUCLEAR PROVING GROUND DEFENCE MINISTER SAID TWO THINGS:-
5. THAT NO FIRST USE HAS SERVED INDIA WELL SO FAR AND WHAT HAPPENS IN FUTURE DEPENDS ON CIRCUMSTANCES
6. SECURITY AFTER ALL IS DYNAMIC

7.     COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR TEST BAN TREATY THAT FORCED INDIA OUT OF NUCLEAR CLOSET AND AT THE SAME TIME TO ADOPT THE NO FIRST USE POSTURE

• DISCUSSION/OUTCOME

1. MINISTER’S REMARK COULD SPARK OFF A NUCLEAR ARMSRACE
2. IN THE ELECTION OF 2014,THE BJP’S MANIFESTO HAD REFERENCE TO INTENTION TO UPDATE AND REVISE THE NUCLEAR DOCTRINE
3. NUCLEAR STRIKE IS NOT VIABLE OPTION
4. IT IS MUCH BETTER TO CONVEY THE OVERWHELMING NATURE OF THE DETERRENCE THAN TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL ADVERSARY GUESSING
5. VIEWS OF PRIYANJALI MALIK
   AN INTERVENTION THAT LEADS TO MORE QUESTIONS
6. INDIA IS ONE OF TWO COUNTRIES CHINA BEING THE OTHER THAT ADHERES TO A DOCTRINE OF NO FIRST USE ( NFU)
7. DOCTRINE OF NO FIRST USE IS BASED LARGELY ON A STATEMENT CIRCULATED BY CABINET COMMIT ON SECURITY ON JAN 4,2003
8. INDIA HAS MAINTAINED THAT IT WILL NOT STRIKE FIRST WITH NUCLEAR WEAPON BUT RESERVE THE RIGHT TO RETALIATE TO ANY NUCLEAR FIRST STRIKE AGAINST IT
9. REVOKING NFU DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN GIVING UP RESTRAINTS BUT INDIA LEAVES INDIA ‘S DOCTRINE MORE AMBIGUOUS

• NOT A BUMPY CYCLE RIDE
  ( OMKAR GOSWAMI )

• SLOW DOWN IN INDIA CYCLICAL OR STRUCTURAL

1. IS IT JUST SERIES OF BAD QUARTERS THAT WILL RIGHT ITSELF SO ON ENOUGH WITH ADEQUATE MONETARY AND CREDIT STIMULUS
2. OR IT IS  SOMETHING MORE SERIOUS ---ONE THAT IS BEYOND THE KEN OF REPO RATE LED MONETARY INTERVENTIONS
3. MAKE MORE IN INDIA:-
4. AT 15% INDIA’S SHARE OF MANUFACTURING TO GDP HAS REMAINED PERSISTENLY FLAT OVER LONG PERIOD
5. COMPARE  THAT WITH MALAYSIA AT 22%,SOUTH KOREA AND THAILAND AT 27%,CHINA AT 29% AND EVEN BANGLADESH 17%
6. MADE MORE HAS DONE NOTHING TO INCREASE MANUFACTURING IN OUR GDP

1. NO RISE IN SHARE OF MANUFACTURE BUT IT HAS SHRUNK ACROSS KEY SECTORS
2. THE INDUSTRIAL PRODCUTION HIT A FOUR MONTH LOW WITH 15 OUT OF 23 INDUSTRY GROUPS SHOWING NEGATIVE GROWTH
3. HOW MUCH  ARE WE INVESTING IN FUTURE INCOME?
4. OUR GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION IS BETWEEN 31% AND 28% OF GDP DPENDING WHETHER IT IS MEASURES AT CONSTANT OR CURRENT PRICES
5. NO SIGNIFICANT PRODUCTIVITY INCREASE
6. INDONESIA IT IS 34%,44% IN CHINA AND OVER 31% IN BANGLADESH
7. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF HUMAN RESOURCES
8. IN 2011, THE LITERACY RATE FOR 18-24  IS 86% AND IN CHINA IT IS 97%,99% IN INDONESIA AND IN CASE OF WOMEN IT IS JUST 82% IN INDIA AND 95% IN CHINA AND 99% IN INDO NESIA
9. GIVEN THE EDUCATION DISPARITY IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT INDIA HAS A VERY LOW SHARE OF WOMEN IN THE WORKFORCE
10. IN 2005 WOMEN ACCOUNTED FOR OVER 26% NOW IN 2018 REDUCED TO 22% AND IN CHINA IN 2018  44%,IT WAS MORE THAN 30%,IN BANGLADESH

• AS YOU SEW SO SHALL WE RIP:

1. EXPORTS BETWEEN APRIL 2011 AND JUNE 2019, OSCILLATING AROUND 25$ BILLION IN MONTH,CHINA WITH FIVE TIMES OUR GDP,SOUTH KOREA 60 % OF OUR GDP
2. AS WE HAVE FAILS AS AN EXPORTING NATION

• CONCLUSION

1. THE SCENARIO IS DEPRESSING
2. MANUFACTURING SHARE IS LOW ( 15% OF GDP)
3. DOMESTIC DEMAND HAS SLOW DOWN
4. NO VENT THROUGH EXPORT
5. IGNORED THE EDUCATION ,WE HAVE MILLION OF YOUNG PEOPLE WITHOUT ANY SKILL FOR TOMORROW
6. ACCORDING TO OMKAR GOSWAMI, BEGINNING OF THE SERIOUS STRUCTURAL PROBLEM NOT A TEMPORARY CYCLICAL
7. SOLUTION PROVIDED BY HIMSUGGESTING CREATING SUFFICIENTLY CREDIT FLOWS TO KEY SECTORS,LOW COST HOUSING,ROADS AND HIGHWAYS,RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND TEXTILE
8. MITIGATE SOME PROBLEMS ( INSTEAD OF 7% GROWTH ,IT IS 6%)

• PANEL FOR REVAMP OF IT ACT,REVIEW OF SURCHARGES ( ET 20^TH AUGUST,2019)

1. A HIGH LEVEL GOVERNMENT TASK FORCE HAS PROPOSED A REVIEW OF THE SURCHARGE LEVIED ON INCOME,A TAX REGIME THAT ENCOURAGE A START UP AND REVAMP OF THE INCOME TAX ACT TO MAKE IT TAX PAYER FRIENDLY
2. THE COMMITT SUBMITTED THE REPORT TO FINANCE MINISTRY NIRMALA SITARAMAN
3. THEMAIN FOCUS IS ON DESIGNING TAX REGIME THAT IS SIMPLE ON COMPLIANCE,FACELESS IN ALL INTERACTION WITH TAX PAYERS AND FOSTERS BUSINESS
4. THE TASK FORCE WAS HEADED BY AKHILESH RANJAN MEMBER OF CENTRAL BOARD OF DIRECT TAXES

• DEBENTURE NORM EASED FOR FIRMS

1. IN A MOVE AIMED AT LOWERING THE COST OF CAPITAL FOR BUSINESSES,THE GOVERNMENT HAS REMOVED THE REQUIREMENTS OF THE LISTED COMPANIES,NON BANKING FINANCIAL COMPANIES AND HOUSING FINANCE COMPANIES MAINTAIN DEBENTURE REDEMPTION RESERVE ( DRR) OF 25% OF THE OUTSTANDING DEBENTURES
2. ACCORDING TO NOTIFICATION,THE COMPANIES WILL NOW BE EXEMPT FROM CREATING A DRR FOR BOTH PUBLIC ISSUE AND PRIVATE PLACEMENT OF DEBENTURES UNDER THE COMPANIES ( SHARE CAPITAL AND DEBENTURES ) RULES
3. DRR REQUIREMENT FOR UNLISTED COMPANIES HAS ALSO BEEN REDUCED FROM 25% TO 10%
4. FOR INCREASING ACCESS TO CAPITAL FOR INDIAN BUSINESS WHO ARE FACING LIQUIDITY CRUNCH

• IOC TO INVEST 25,000 CR IN GREEN ENERGY
• INDIAN OIL CORPORATION ,THE NATION’S LARGEST REFINER AND FOSSIL FUEL RETAILER,PLANS TO INVEST RS ,25,000 CRORE IN GREEN ENERGY PROJECTS INCLUDING SOLAR AND WIND POWER PLANTS,BIO FUELS SOLAR PLANTS AND SOLAR PANEL AT FILLING STATIONS
• DEVELOPED A ROAD MAP AND ACTION PLAN TO USHER IN CLEAN AND GREEN ENERGY ALTERNATIVES TO MITIGATE THE RISK OF GLOBAL WARMING
• AGRI,RURAL,LABOUR CPI BASE YEAR TO BE REVISED TO 19-20

1. THE LABOUR BUREAU HAS KICKSTRATED THE EXERCISE OF REVISING THE BASE YEAR FOR CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL LABOUR ( CPI-AL/RL) TO 2019-2020 FROM 1986-87 FOR ALL STATES AND UNION TERRITORIES
2. INDEX USED FOR DETERMINING MINIMUM WAGES AND THOSE FOR THE GOVERNMENT’S RURAL JOBS PROGRAMME UNDER THE MAHATMA GANDHI NATIONAL RURAL EMPLOYMENT  GUARANTEE ACT ( MGNREGA)
3. AS WITH OTHER CPI,THE CONSUMPTION PATTERN OF AGRICULTURAL LABOURERS HAS CHANGED
4. THE NEW INDEX WILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION BASKET OVER THE PAST THREE DECADES AND COULD RESULT IN UPWARD REVISION IN MGNREGA WAGES AS WELL AS MINIMUM WAGES THAT WILL BE DETERMINED UNDER THE CODE ON WAGES
5. AGRI,RURAL,LABOUR CPI BASE YEAR TO BE REVISED TO 19-20
6. THE CPI BASKET COMBINES OVER 45% EXPENDITURE ON FOOD AND BEVERAGES,10 % ON HOUSING,OVER 6.8% ON FUEL AND LIGHT 6.5% FOR CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR AND 18% ON MISCELLANEOUS EXPENDITURE INCLUDING ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH

• TRUMP NOT READY FOR CHINA TRADE DEAL DISMISSES RECESSION FEAR

1. US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP AND TOP WHITE HOUSE DISMISSED CONCERN THAT ECONOMIC GROWTH MAY BE FALTERING
2. DESPITE VOLATILE WEEK ON GLOBAL BOND MARKET AND INSISTING THEIR TRADE WAR WITH CHINA NOT DAMAGING UNITED STATES
3. ACCORDING TO HIM CHINA WAS READY TO STRUCK A DEAL BUT HE WAS NOT READY
4. ACCORDING TO SURVEY 34 % OF THE ECONOMISTS EXPECT US RECESSION IN 2021

• SOFTWARE INDUSTRY WANTS SEZ SOPS TO STAY,TAX CUTS

1. INDIA’S SOFTWARE EXPORT INDUSTRY MAY LOSE OUT ITS COMPETITIVE EDGE DUE TO FALLING INCENTIVES AND RISING TAX RATES
2. DEMANDED THE GOVERNMENT TO EXTEND THE POLICY BENEFITS UNDER THE SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES BEYOND APRIL 20120,,REDUCE CORPORATE TAX AND REVIEW THE BUYBACK TAX INTRODUCED IN THE BUDGET
3. ACCORDING TO NASSCOM( NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF SOFTWARE AND SERVICE COMPANIES ) NEARLY 70% OF THE INDIAN SOFTWARE INDUSTRY REVENUE IS CONTRIBUTED BY TOP 150 COMPANIES
4. THESE COMPANIES WHOSE TURNOVER IS RS 400 CRORE A YEAR PAY MUCH  MORE THAN FLAT OR CORPORATE TAX
5. ESSENTIAL FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO CONTINUW WITH SEZ BENEFITS,THE GROWTH OF THE IT INDUSTRY HAS BEEN POSSIBLE DUE TO INCENTIVES
6. SOFTWARE INDUSTRY WANTS SEZ SOPS TO STAY,TAX CUTS
7. LOTS OF COUNTRIES GIVE INCENTIVES FOR EMPLOYMENT GENERATION INCLUDING CHINA,MALAYISA AND FEW US STATES
8. THE IT INDUSTRY CONTRIBUTE 6.6% OF THE COUNTRY’S GDP ,DIRECTLY EMPLOY 4.1 MILLION PEOPE AND EARNS IN EXCESS OF 130 BILLION IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE WITH 180$ BILLION IN OVER ALL REVENUE
9. PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE WHILE REALIZING THE GOVT’S DREAM OF 5 $ TRILLION ECONOMY
10. CHINA AND SOUTH AFRICA OFFER 15 % TAX
11. INDONESIA ,MEXICAN AND SOUTH KOREA OFFER REDUCTION IN INCOME TAX RATE UP TO 100% TO FIRMS IN SPECIAL ZONES

• UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

1. NATIONAL STATISTICS OFFICE’S ( NSO) PERIODIC LABOUR FORCE SURVEY 2017-18,THE ALL INDIA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE STANDS 6.1 %
2. ALL TIME HIGH-THE HIGHEST SINCE 1977-78
3. AT 10.8 % ,THE RATE IS HIGHER AMONG URBAN WOMEN THAN THEIR MALE COUNTERPART 7.1%
4. IN RURAL INDIA,THE MALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 5.8% AND WOMEN 3.8%
5. IN 2017-2018,THE NUMBER OR UNEMPLOYED HAVE MORE THAN DOUBLED 10.8 MILLION IN 2011-2012 TO 28.5 MILLION
6. RURAL AND URBAN DYNAMICS SHOW VERY DIFFERENT PICTURES
7. BETWEEN 2011-2012 AND 2017-2018,DECLINE OF ABOUT 17.7 MILLION JOBS IN THE RURAL SECTOR WHILE ABOUT 18,3 MILLION HAVE BEEN ADDED IN THE URBAN SECTOR
8. ABOUT 26.4 MILLION PEOPLE HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE URBAN LABOUR FORCE ,DECLINE IN 8 MILLION IN THE RURAL SECTOR
9. WITH THE LACK OF RURAL DIVERSIFICATION REDUCING JOB OPPORTUNITIES,RURAL WOMEN MAY QUIT THE LBOUR MARKET
10. PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM AND SCHEMES MAY NOT HAVE ALLOWED TO CAUSE MUCH ECONOMIC DETERIORATION IN HOUSEHOLD
11. TWO FEATURES OF JOBLESSNESS :-

1. ACCELERATION RATE HAVE TAKEN PLACE ACROSS STATES GOA,MANIPUR,KERALA,NAGALAND ,UP,HIMACHAL,JAMMU AND KASHMIR ETC
2. STATE VARIATION IN UNEMPLOYMENT HAS NARROW DOWN

12. DIFFICULT TO AFFORD STAYING UNEMPLOYED FOR LONG GIVEN THE AVAILABILITY OF CONSUMPTION SUPPORT SCHEMES IN INDIA
13. SINCE WAGE EMPLOYMENT CAN NOT BE PROVIDED ON LARGE SCALE,ENTREPRENEURSHIP MUST BE PROMOTED BY PROVIDING SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT
14. GAP IN SKILLS,VOCATIONAL TRAINING SHOULD BE GIVEN