ANALYSIS OF INFROMAL SUMMIT BETWEEN CHINESE PREMIER XI JINPING AND PM NARENDRA MODI

•     ANALYSIS OF INFORMAL SUMMIT

•     TRADE BORDER DISPUTE LIKELY TO DOMINATE MODI-XI TALKS

1.       INFORMAL SUMMIT AT MAMALLAPURAM AS THE SEA SIDE RESORT ON OUTSKIRT OF CHENNAI

2.       MR XI WILL LAND IN CHENNAI PAST 2 PM ABOUT TWO HOURS AFTER MR MODI

3.       HEAD TO THE MAMALLAPURAM TEMPLE COMPLEX FOR AN EVENING WITH MR MODI

4.       TOUR OF THE MONUMENTS AND DANCE PERFORMANCE AT THE SHORE TEMPLE AT SUNSET FOLLOWED BY DINNER

5.       BOTH LEADERS WOULD BE RECEIVED BY TAMIL NADU GOVERNER BANIWARILAL PURHOIT AND CHIEF MINISTER EDAPPADI K PALANISWAMI,INDIAN AMBASSADOR TO CHINA VIKRAM MISTRI

•     MODI –XI SUMMIT GREAT EXPECTATION

1.       NO MOUS OR AGREEMENTS ARE LIKELY TO BE SIGNED IN MAMALLAPURAM,ONLY A JOINT COMMUNIQUE IS EXPECTED

2.       INDIAN SIDE WILL HOPE TO KEEP THE DISCUSSION OVER THE ISSUE OF KASHMIR AT A MINIMUM

3.       TALKS LIKELY ON REDUCING BILATERAL DEFICIT, OPENING MARKET ACCESS FOR INDIAN COMPANIES AND FOR HUAWEI IN 5 G TRIALS AND ON RCEP FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS

4.       ACCORDING TO LATEST FIGURES THE TRADE DEFICIT IN CHINA’S FAVOUR REDUCED LAST YEAR  ABOUT$ 53 BILLION BUT OFFICIAL HOPE TO BRING IT MUCH LOWER BY ENSURING CHINESE PROVIDES MARKET ACCESS MORE TO INDIAN COMPANIES

5.       MR MODI WILL SEEK GURANTEES FROM MR XI AHEAD OF THE RCEP FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS SIGNING ON NOVEMBER 1 WHERE INDIA STILL HAS THE LAST MINUTE HESITATIONS OVER THE FLOODING OF THE INDIAN MARKET BY CHINESE GOODS

6.       ALSO DISCUSS INDIAN SECURITY CONCERNS OVER INCLUDING CHINESE TECH GIANT HUAWEI IN ITS FIVE G TRIALS AND REPORTS INDICATED THAT INDIA HAD AGREED TO ALLOW A HUWEI DEMO AT MOBILE AND TELECOM CONFERENCE IN DELHI

7.       AFTER THE INFORMAL SUMMIT,MEETING ARE LIKELY BETWEEN THE SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVES OF THE COUNTRIES ON BOUNDARY TALKS AND BETWEEN TRADE MINISTERS. COUNTER TERROR EXERCISES HAND IN HAND WILL COMMENCE IN DECEMBER

8.       EXTENDING INDIA CHINA PLUS ONE DIPLOMATS TRAINING PROGRAMME IN AFGHANISTAN AND JOINT PROJECTS FOR CAPACITY BUILDING IN OTHER COUNTRIES

9.       ENHANCING BANGLADESH-CHINA AND INDIA AND MYNAMAR INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

•     EDITORIAL PAGE 8
A CHENNAI SETTING

1.       A UNIQUE RELATIONSHIP REQUIRES UNIQUE AND IMAGINATIVE WAYS TO MANAGE DIFFERENCES

2.       FOR THIS REASON THAT INDIA AND CHINA WITH 3380 KM COMMON BOUNDARY THOUSAND OF YEARS OF  SHARED HISTORY AND HALF OF CENTURY OF BOUNDARY DISPUTES AND TENSIONS HAS ALWAYS NEEDED UNIQUE MECHANISM

3.       THE  SECOND INFORMAL SUMMIT BETWEEN PM MODI AND  CHINA PRESIDENT XI JINPING

4.       TWO COUNTRIES TO DEAL WITH EBBS AND FLOWS IN TIES

5.       THE LEADERS LAST HELD IN WUHAN SUMMIT, TWO NATIONS BROUGHT DOWN TENSIONS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ,INITIATED NEW DIALOGUE ON TRADE WHICH LED TO MORE MARKET ACCESS AND A SMALL INDENT IN THE DOLLAR 53 BILLION TRADE DEFICIT AND SAW MORE INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION INCLUDING AT THE WTO AND ON CLIMATE CHANGES AND TERRORISM

6.       CHINA JOINED UBSC MEMBERS IN A STATEMENT CONDEMNING THE PULWAMA ATTACK AND THEN IN MAY REVERSED ITS DECADE OLD POSITION BY ALLOWING THE UNSC LISTING OF THE JASIH E MOHAMMED CHIEF MASOOR AZHAR AND SINCE THE AUGUST 5 DECISION BY THE GOVERNMENT ON ARTICLE 370 AND THE BIFURCATION OF JAMMU AND KASHMIR AND LADAKH AND THE STRONG REACTION FROM CHINA

7.       IF BEIJING’S DECISION TO RAISE THE INDIAN GOVERNMENT’S MOVE AT ITS SUBSEQUENT STATEMENTS INCLUDING THE UNGENERAL ASSEMBLY HAVE ALIENATED NEW DELHI FURTHER

8.       MR XI’S INVITATION TO PM IMRAN KHAN TO VISIT BEIJING IN THE SAME WEEK THAT MR XI MEETS MODI IS CLEARLY A NEGATIVE SIGNAL

9.       INDIA’S DECISION TO HOLD MOUNTAIN COMBAT EXERCISE IN ARUNACHAL PRADESH JUST PRIOR TO THE SUMMIT SUMMIT IS ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF RED FLAGS RAISED WHICH HAD EVEN CAST A DOUBT OVER WHTEHER THE SUMMIT WOULD GO A HEAD

10.    IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE IT IS HOPED THAT MR XI WILL ASSUAGE INDIA’S CONCERN ON TRADE ISSUES WITH A VIEW TO MEETING THE DEADLINES FOR THE ASEAN LED RCEP FREE TRADE AGREEMENT IN NOVEMBER AND POSSIBLY DIRECT SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVES ON THE BOUNDARY ISSUE TO SPEED UP THEIR TALKS

11.    FOR THE LARGE PICTURE THEY SHOULD END THE DOWNSLIDE IN BILATERAL TIES AND SET UP MORE ROBUST COMMUNICATION IN ORDER TO ADDRESS EACH OTHER ‘S CONCERN.

•     MAMALLAPURAM DECKED UP FOR INFORMAL SUMMIT ( ET 2)

1.       THE HISTORICAL TEMPLE TOWN OF MAMALLUPURAM CAME UNDER A MULTIPLAYER SECURITY COVER A DAY  A HEAD OF THE INFORMAL SUMMIT BETWEEN PRIME MINISTER NARENDRA MODI AND CHINESE  PREMIER XI JINPING BEGINNING FRIDAY

2.       SHOPKEEPERS AND TRADERS IN TOWN DOWNED SHUTTERS AND VEHICULAR TRAFFIC THINNED OUT A HEAD OF THE VISIT

3.       FRESH LAYERS OF PAINT ONE EVERY WALL ALONG THE WELL SWEPT ROADS LEADING TO THE SUMMIT WITH NEW GRILLS AND DECORATIVE PIECES AT CRUCIAL POINTS LIKE THE SHORE TEMPLE AND FIVE RATHS

4.       STATE POLICE DEPARTMENT WILL DEPLOY THOUSANDS OF PERSONNEL AS PART OF SECURITY THAT WILL INCLUDE THE SPECIAL PROTECTION GROUP TOO

5.       AT MAMALLAAPURAM VIGOROUS CHECKING AND VERIFICATION TOOK PLACE AND MIGRANT WORKERS WERE SUBJECT TO QUESTIONING

•     CHINA TRIES TO ALLAY INDIA’S CONCERNS
(PAGE 2)

1. CHINA A HEAD OF PRESIDENT XI JINPING’S BACK TO BACK VISITS TO INDIA AND NEPAL BETWEEN OCTOBER 11-13 HAS ATTEMPTED TO ALLAY INDIA ‘S APPREHENSIONS ABOUT BRI IN NEPAL AND CLAIMED NEPAL WILL BENEFIT FROM INDIA CHINA COMPETITION IN THE HIMALAYAN STATE
2. NEPAL’S ECONOMY CAN BENEFIT FROM SINO INDIA COMPETITION
3. CHINA’S INCREASING ECONOMIC PRESENCE IN NEPAL HAS AROUSED VIGILANCE IN INDIA
4. INDIA AND NEPAL IN SEPTEMBER INAUGURATED A CROSS BORDER OIL PIPELINE WHICH WILL TRANSPORT FUEL TO THE LANDLOCKED COUNTRY

5.       MANY PROPOSED PROJECTS UNDER CHINA’S MEGA CONNECTIVITY INITIATIVES IN THE HIMALAYAN STATES ARE NOT PRACTICAL IN NATURE AND CAN PUSH NEPAL INTO A DEBT TRAP

6.       XI’S FORTHCOMING NEPAL VISIT WOULD RESULT IN HISTORIC OUTCOMES INCLUDING A NEW BLUE PRINT FOR THE TRANS HIAMMALYA CONNECTIVITY NETWORK

7.       FIRST OFFICIAL VISIT BY A CHINESE PREMIER IN THE HIMALAYAN NATION AFTER 23 RD YEARS

8.       $ 2.75 BILLION TRANS HIMALAYAN PROJECT UNDER THE CONTROVERSIAL BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVES IS CONSIDERED TO BE ONE OF THE MOST AMBITIOUS INFRASTRUCTURE

•     IN MAMALLAPURAM SEEKING THE TRUE NORTH IN TIES
BY SUJAN R CHINOY

•     THE SECOND INFORMAL SUMMIT BETWEEN INDIA AND CHINA IN MAMALLAPURAM OFF CHENNAI IN TAMILNADU PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CHINA’S PRESIDENT XI JINPING AND PM NARENDRA MODI TO CONTINUE DISCUSSION ON OVER REACHING ISSUES OF BILATERAL ,REGIONAL AND GLOBAL IMPORTANCE

•     SOME STRESS POINTS:

1.       CHINA’S POSITION ON ISSUES SUCH AS MASSOD AZHAR

2.       INDIA’S NUCLEAR SUPPLIER’S GROUP MEMBERSHIPS

3.       YAWNING TRADE GAP

4.       INROADS INTO SOUTH ASIA

5.       MODI’S VISION OF AN  INCLUSIVE INDO PACIFIC REGION,OUTLINES AT SHANGARI LA EVENT IN THE SINGAPORE IN JUNE LAST YEAR HAS HELPED ALLAY SOME CONCERNS OVER AMERICA’S FREE AND OPEN INDO PACIFIC STRATEGY

6.       CHINA’S PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR PAKISTAN ON JAMMU AND KASHMIR HAS CREATED A STRESS POINT

7.       THE SLOW DOWN IN THE CHINESE ECONOMY AND THE GEO-STRATEGIC COMPETITION WITH THE UNITED STATES POINT TO FURTHER UNCERTAINTY

8.       THE IDEA OF A CHINA CENTRIC ORDER IN ASIA HAS MET WITH RESISTANCE

9.       EVEN AT THE MINSK DIALOGUE FORUM IN BELARUS THIS WEEK,SEVERAL SPEAKERS REFERRED TO COOPERATION BETWEEN THE EU-EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION AND CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVES WITH PALPABLE UNEASE CITING CHINA’S LACK OF ADHERENCE TO GLOBAL STANDARDS AND DISREGARD FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND LABOUR RULES

10.    DURING PAKISTAN PRIME MINISTER IMRAN KHAN’S VISIT TO BEIJING THIS WEEK,MR XI IS REPORTED TO HAVE STATED THAT CHINA IS PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE SITUATION IN KASHMIR AND THAT CHINA WOULD SUPPORT PAKISTAN ON ITS CORE INTEREST INVITING A QUICK RIPOSTE BY THE INDIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY THAT IS NOT  FOR OTHERS OT COMMENT ON THE INTERNAL AFFAIRS OF INDIA

•     ON KASHMIR

1.       CHINA MAINTAINS THAT THE  QUESTION OF JAMMU AND KASHMIR SHOULD BE SETTLED ON THE BASIS OF UN CHARTERS,UN SECURITY COUNCILS RESOLUTIONS AND BILATERAL AGREEMENTS

2.       BOUNDARY AGREEMENT WITH PAKISTAN OF MARCH 2,1963 AND THE CHINA AND PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR ( CPEC) HAVE DE FACTO ALTERED THE STATUS QUO AND VIOLATED THE SPIRIT OF THE VERY UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION THAT CHINA SUPPORTS IN SUPPORT OF CHINA

3.       CHINA HOLDS APPROXIMATELY 38,000 SQ KM OF LAND IN AKSAI CHIN AND A FURTHER 5180 SQ KM ILLEGALLY CEDED BY PAKISTAN TO CHINA UNDER THE 1963 AGREEMENT

4.       THE LATTER AGREEMENT UNDER WHICH CHINA WOULD REOPEN NEGOTIATION WITH THE CONCERNED SOVEREIGN AUTHORITY

5.       CHINA’S ENDORSEMENT OF THE CPEC HAS BEEN REJECTED BY INDIA AS IT PASSES THROUGH PAKISTAN OCCUPIED KASHMIR

6.       CHINA MAY HAVE REALIZED THAT CPEC WAS A HASTY DECISION WITHOUT PROPER CONSULTATION WITH INDIA

7.       CHINA CAN NOT PULL AWAY FROM STRATEGIC IRON BROTHER STATUS

8.       INDIA CHINA RELATIONS HAVE WITNESSED MANY PEEKS AND TROUGH

9.       THE FREQUENCY IS GREATER,BUT THE CYCLES OF DISRUPTION HAVE BECOME SHORTER

10.    AFTER THE BORDER WAR IN 1962,TOOK 14 YEARS TO NORMALIZE RELATIONS AT THE AMBAAADORIAL LEVEL

11.    IN THE WAKE OF NUCLEAR TESTS IN 1998,IT TOOK ONLY TWO YEARS TO NORMALIZE TIES

12.    AFTER THE STAND OFFS AT DOKLAM 2017,THE TWO LEADERS MET AT THE BRICS SUMMIT

13.    BOTH INDIA AND CHINA ARE KEEN TO DEEPEN ENGAGEMENT

•     SIGNIFICANCE OF SETTING

1.       THE INFORMAL SUMMIT OFFERS YET ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY TO RESET RELATIONS IN AN ERA OF GEO STRATEGIC FLUX

2.       THEIR STRATEGIC GUIDANCE TO THE STAKE HOLDERS ON BOTH SIDES WOULD ACT AS A COMPASS IN FINDING THE TRUE NORTH IN TIES

3.       MAMALLAPURAM IS NOT IN PLACE WITHOUT SIGNIFICANCE

4.       WUHAN THE SITE OF THE FIRST INFORMAL SUMMIT IS THE PLACE WHERE MAO ZEDONG HAD  DISPLAYED HIS VITALITY BY SWIMMING IN THE CURRENTS OF THE YANGSTE RIVER TODAY

5.       THE COASTAL TOWN OF THE N=ANCIENT MARITIME LINKS BETWEEN THE PALLAVA EMPIRE AND CHINA 2000 YEARS AGO

6.       BODHIDHARAM THE FOUNDER OF THE DHYAN SCHOOL PF MEDIATION AT THE SHAOLIN MONASTERY IN HENAN

7.       THE CHOICE OF MAMALLAPURAM AS A VENUE ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE SCOPE OF THE INDIA CHINA ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP ACROSS INDIA

8.       MUCH UNTAPPED CHINESE INVESTMENT

9.       WELCOME SPIKE : CHINESE FDI SINCE 2015

10.    CUMULATIVE FDI IN INDIA STANDS $ 8 BILLION

•     GLOBAL CONTEXT

1.       THE SECOND INFORMAL SUMMIT COMES WITHIN WEEKS OF THE SO CALLED QUAD MEETING AT THE FOREIGN MINISTERS LEVEL

2.       ALSO TAKES PLACE AT THE TIME WHEN TENSIONS BETWEEN THE US AND CHINA ARE MOUNTING A BROAD FRONT FROM TRADE TO MILITARY WITH THE LATEST KINDLING BEING THE BLACKLISTING OF 28 CHINESE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FIRMS FOR THEIR INVOLVEMENT IN ALLEGED HUMAN RIGHT VIOLATIONS IN XINJIANG

3.       CHINA’S 70 TH ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATIONS OF COMMUNIST PARTY RULE ON OCTOBER WAS MARRED BY CONTINUING PROTESTS IN HONGKONG RAISING THE QUESTION OF REALIZING THE CHINA DREAM BY 2049

4.       FURTHER THE ONE COUNTRY TWO SYSTEMS APPLIED TO HONG ONG MEANT TO BE MODEL FOR TAIWAN’S RETURN TO THE FOLD COULD BE VIEWED WITH SKEPTICISM

5.       INDIA AND CHINA MUST WORK TOGETHER FOR BETTER AND STABLE RELATIONS

6.       GREATER TRUST AND COOPERATION

7.       AT MAMALLAPURAM THE COOL SEA BREZE,PALM FONDS AND ANCIENT TEMPLES WILL PROVIDE A PERFECT SETTING