Thursday, February 6, 2020

TECHNIQUES OF FORECASTING HUMAN RESOURCE ( MANPOWER) PLANNING




  • TECHNIQUES ( METHODS) OF FORECASTING HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING

  •  DR. SHASHI AGGARWAL
  • HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
  • MEANING OF HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING/MANPOWER PLANNING
  • DECENZO AND ROBBINS,” HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING IS THE PROCESS BY WHICH AN ORGANIZATION ENSURES THAT IT HAS THE RIGHT NUMBER AND KIND OF PEOPLE AT THE RIGHT PLACE AT THE RIGHT TIME CAPABLE OF EFFECTIVELY AND EFFICIENTLY COMPLETING THOSE TASKS THAT WILL HELP THE ORGANIZATION ACHIEVE ITS OVER ALL OBJECTIVES.

  • THE PROCESS OF HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING FOR REVISION
  1. DETERMINATION OF OBJECTIVE OF MAN POWER PLANNING
  2. PREPARATION OF OBJECTIVE OF MAN POWER INVENTORY
  3. DEMAND FORECASTING
  4. ESTIMATING THE NET MAN POWER REQUIREMENTS
  5. ACTION PLAN
  6. EMPLOYMENT PLAN
  7. TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT

  • HR DEMAND FORECAST

  • FORECASTING HUMAN RESOURCE DEMAND IS THE PROCESS OF ESTIMATING THE HUMAN RESOURCE REQUIREMENT OF RIGHT QUALITY AND RIGHT NUMBER
  • DEMAND ANALYSIS IDENTIFIES THE FUTURE WORKFORCE REQUIREMENTS NEEDED TO MAINTAIN THE ORGANIZATION’S MISSION AND GOALS
  • THE END RESULT OF DEMAND ANALYSIS IS THE IDENTIFICATION OF THE REQUIRED NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN AN ORGANIZATION AND NECESSARY FUNCTION THAT EMPLOYEE CAN PERFORM TO MEET ORGANIZATIONAL OBJECTIVES
  • POTENTIAL HUMAN RESOURCE REQUIREMENT IS TO BE ESTIMATED KEEPING THE VIEW THE ORGANIZATION’S PLANS OVER A GIVEN PERIOD OF TIME

  • FACTORS
  1. EMPLOYMENT TREND :-THE MANPOWER PLANNING COMMITTEE SHOULD COMPARE AND AN ALYSE THE STAFF DURING THE PAST FIVE YEARS TO KNOW THE TREND WITH IN EACH GROUP
  2. REPLACEMENT NEEDS :-MAY ARISE TO DUE TO DEATH,RETIREMENT,RESIGNATION AND TERMINATION OF EMPLOYEES. ASSESSMENT ON THE BASIS OF PAST EXPERIENCE. FORECAST OF MANPOWER BE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF PAST DATA
  3. PRODUCTIVITY :- MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS ARE ALSO INFLUENCED BY IMPROVEMENT IN THE PRODUCTIVITY. PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT IS AUTOMATION AND COMPUTERIZATION. WILL INFLUENCE BOTH QUALITATIVELY AND QUANTITATIVELY
ABSENTEEISM :-WHILE ESTIMATING DEMAND FOR MANPOWER THE PREVAILING RATE OF ABSENTEEISM IN THE ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED. THE RATE OF ABSENTEEISM CAN BE CALCULATED IN THIS MANNER:
  1. RATE OF ABSEENTISM=MANDAY LOST DUE TO ABSENTEEISM/(MANDAY WORKED+MAN DAY LOST)
  2. EXPANSION AND GROWTH
  3. WORK STUDY
  • FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
  1. QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES
  2. QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES
  • QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES
  1. MANAGERIAL JUDGMENT
  2. DELPHI TECHNIQUE
  3. WORK STUDY TECHNIQUE
  4. NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE
  5. SCENARIO ANALYSIS
  • MANAGERIAL JUDGMENT
  1. USED BY SMALLER COMPANIES
  2. MANAGERS SIT DOWN,PLAN ABOUT FUTURE WORK LOAD AND DECIDE HOW MANY PEOPLE THEY NEED
  3. BOTTOM UP APPROACH: SUBMISSION OF PROPOSAL TO TOP MANAGEMENT
  4. BEST WAY IS TO USE BOTTOM UP AND TOP DOWN APPROACH
  5. GUIDELINES SHOULD BE DEPARTMENTAL HEADS  FOR THE FUTURE ACTIVITY
  6. DEMAND FORECAST WILL BE PREPARED BY DEPARTMENTAL HEADS
  7. PERSONNEL DEPARTMENT ALSO PREPARES
  8. COMMITTEE REVIEWS IT AND SUBMIT THE FINAL AMENDMENT FORECAST TO TOP MANAGEMENT. KNOWN AS RIGHT ANGLE METHOD

  • WORK STUDY TECHNIQUES OR WORK LOAD ANALYSIS:-

  1. APPLICABILITY WHERE IT IS POSSIBLE TO MEASURE WORK MEASUREMENT
  2. ALSO KNOWN AS WORK LOAD ANALYSIS
  3. TOTAL PRODUCTION AND ACTIVITIES FOR A SPECIFIC FUTURE PERIOD ARE PREDICTED
  4. TRANSLATED INTO NUMBER OF MAN HOURS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE PER UNIT TAKING INTO THE CAPABILITY OF THE WORKFORCE
  5. PAST EXPERIENCE OF THE MANAGEMENT CAN HELP IN TRANSLATING THE WORK LOAD INTO NUMBER OF MAN HOURS REQUIRED
  6. DEMAND OF HUMAN RESOURCE IS FORE CASTED ON THE BASIS OF ESTIMATED TOTAL PRODUCTION AND CONTRIBUTION OF EACH EMPLOYEE IN PRODUCING EACH UNIT ITEMS


  • EXAMPLE
  1. ANNUAL PRODUCTION BUDGET=4,00,000
  2. THE STANDARD MAN HOURS REQUIRED TO COMPLETE A UNIT IS THREE HOURS
  3. THE PAST EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT ON AVERAGE A WORKER CAN CONTRIBUTE MAXIMUM 2000 HOUR PER YEAR
  4. PLANNED MAN HOURS FOR THE YEARS=4,00000X3=12,00,000
  5. ANNUAL CONTRIBUTION OF WORKER =2000
  6. NO OF WORKER REQUIRED =12,00,000/2000=600
  7. BUT ACTUAL PRODUCTION IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY MANY OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS BREAKDOWN OF MACHINERY,STRIKES ,LOCKOUT,POWER SHORTAGE ETC
  • WORK FORCE ANALYSIS
  • IT IS NECESSARY TO KEEP A SUFFICIENT MARGIN FOR ABSEENTISM,LABOUR TURNOVER AND IDEAL TIME ON BASIS OF PAST EXPERIENCE.

  • DELPHI TECHNIQUES
  • TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION HUMAN RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS GIVEN BY A GROUP OF EXPERTS THAT IS MANAGERS
  • THE HUMAN RESOURCES COLLECT THE MANPOWER NEEDS
  • SUMMARIZES THE VARIOUS RESPONSES AND PREPARE REPORT
  • PROCESS IS CONTINUED UNTIL ALL EXPERTS AGREE ON ESTIMATED HUMAN RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS
  • THE DISTINGUISHING FEATURE : ABSENCE OF INTERACTION AMONG EXPERTS
  • NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE
  1. INVOLVES MULTIPLE EXPERTS ( USUALLY LINE AND DEPARTMENT MANAGER ) MEETING FACT TO FACE DISCUSS INDEPENDENTLY
  2. CAN BE USED TO HELP FORECAST HR DEMAND FOR AN ORGANIZATION OR CAN BE USED TO SOLVE OTHER ORGANIZATIONAL ISSUES
  • SCENARIO ANALYSIS
  • SCENARIO ANALYSIS PROVIDE MULTIPLE ESTIMATES OF FUTURE HR DEMAND ON UNIQUE SET OF ASSUMPTIONS AND CIRCUMSTANCES FOR EACH SCENARIO
  • THREE ESTIMATES
  1. ONE AT THE LEVEL OF CONTINUANCE WITH THE STATUS QUO
  2. OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO
  3. PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO
  • STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES
  • RATIOS AND TREND ANALYSIS:-HERE THE RATIOS ARE CALCULATED ON THE PAST DATA RELATING TO NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES OF EACH CATEGORY. FUTURE RATIOS ARE CALCULATED WHEN CHANGES ARE ESTIMATED IN ORGANIZATIONS,METHODS AND JOBS.IT SUFFERS FROM COMPLEXITY AND ALSO USEFUL WHEN THERE IS AVAILABLE OF ACCURATE RECORD AND REALISTIC ESTIMATES OF FUTURE ACTIVITY.
  • ECONOMETRIC MODELS:-
  1. HERE THE PAST DATA IS ANALYZED
  2. IDENTIFICATION OF THE VARIABLES
  3. THEIR RELATIONS IS MEASURED
  4. COMPLEX AND SUITABLE TO LARGE ORGANIZATION
  • REGRESSION ANALYSIS:-USED TO ESTIMATE THE MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS OF AN ORGANIZATION AT FUTURE POINT OF TIME,BASED UPON SUCH FACTORS AS SALES,OUTPUT SERVICES RENDERED. REGRESSION ANALYSIS IS USED WHERE DEPENDENT VARIABLES AND INDEPENDENT VARIABLES ARE FUNCTIONALLY RELATED TO EACH OTHER. STATISTICAL SOFTWARE'S ARE USED TO SOLVE REGRESSION EQUATIONS.

  • BUREKS-SMITH MODEL: DEVELOPED BY ELMER H BUREKS AND ROBERT D SMITH A MATHEMATICAL MODEL . SELECTED KEY VARIABLE
  • THE BASIC EQUATION=En= (( LAGG +G)1/X)/(Y)
  1. En=  THE ESTIMATED LEVEL OF PERSONNEL DEMAND IN n PLANNING PERIOD
  2.  LAGG =OVER ALL TURNOVER OR AGGREGATE LEVEL OF CURRENT BUSINESS ACTIVITY IN RUPEES
  3. G IS THE GROWTH IN BUSINESS ACTIVITY,
  4. X IS THE AVERAGE PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT
  5. Y= CONVERSION  FIGURE RELATING TO OVER ALL ACTIVITY TO PERSONNEL REQUIRED

  • SUPPLY FORECASTING

  • IT IS CONCERNED WITH THE ESTIMATE OF THE SUPPLY OF THE MANPOWER GIVEN THE ANALYSIS OF CURRENT RESOURCES AND FUTURE AVAILABILITY
  • EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL SUPPLY SOURCES
  • EXTERNAL SOURCE OF SUPPLY IS IMPORTANT:-
  1. NORMAL SEPARATION OF EMPLOYEE THROUGH VOLUNTARY TURNOVER
  2. RETIREMENT
  3. ILLNESS
  4. DEATH
  5. DISCHARGE
  6. ORGANIZATION GROWTH AND DIVERSIFICATION

  • INTERNAL SUPPLY:-
  1. EXISTING MANPOWER RESOURCES
  2. POTENTIAL LOSSES TO EXISTING RESOURCES THROUGH LABOUR WAST AGES
  3. EFFECT OF  CHANGING CONDITIONS OF WORK AND ABSENTEEISM
  4. SOURCES OF SUPPLY FROM WITH IN THE FIRM




  • METHODS OF SUPPLY FORECASTING
  • MARKOV ANALYSIS:-
  • USES A HISTORICAL INFORMATION ON THE MOVEMENT OF PERSONNEL
  • COLLECTED DATA REVIEWED FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS
  • ESTIMATION OF LIKELIHOOD OF PERSON REMAINING IN THAT JOB/PROMOTED/DEMOTED/TRANSFERRED/RETIRED/TERMINATED
  • PROBABILITIES ARE ARRANGED IN TRANSITION MATRIX AND FUTURE PERSONNEL FLOWS ARE ESTIMATED ON THE BASIS OF THE MATRIX
  • SIMULATION:-BASED ON MARKOV ANALYSIS
  • CONSIDERS ALTERNATIVE FLOW WHICH ARE EXAMINED FOR EFFECTS ON FUTURE SUPPLIES
  • ALTERNATIVE FLOWS REFLECT THE ANTICIPATED RESULT OF POLICY OR PROGRAMME CHANGES CONCERNING VOLUNTARY AND INVOLUNTARY TURNOVER ,RETIREMENT.PROMOTION ETC

  • RENEWAL ANALYSIS:-
  • ESTIMATING FUTURE FLOWS AND SUPPLIES OF MANPOWER :-
  • VACANCIES CREATED BY THE ORGANIZATION
  • THE RESULT OF DECISION RULES GOVERNING THE FILLING OF VACANCIES
  • GOAL PROGRAMMING:- OPERATIONAL RESEARCH TECHNIQUE
  • THE GOAL TO OPTIMIZE THE DESIRED STAFFING PATTERN SUBJECT TO CONSTRAINTS CONCERNING SUCH FACTORS AS THE UPPER LI MITS  ON FLOWS,PERCENTAGE OF NEW RECRUITS PERMITTED AND TOTAL SALARY BUDGET


  • STAFFING TABLES:
  1. PROVIDES A CLEAR GRAPHICAL VIEW OF ALL ORGANZATIONAL JOBS AND CURRENT NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES AT EACH JOB
  2. SIMPLE VISUAL UNDERSTANDING OF AN ORGANIZATION ‘S STAFFING LEVEL WITHIN EACH DEPARTMENT AND ORGANIZATION AS WHOLE
  3. HELP IN EVALUATING STAFFING LEVEL BY DEAPRTMENTS,BRANCHES OR PROJECT,THE TYPES OF STAFF AT EACH LEVEL AND COMBINATION OF STAFF IN ALL CATEGORIES



Posted by at
Labels: , , ,

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)